#deep-dive
Every post tagged "deep-dive".
107 posts · showing 51–60
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The Moat Isn't the Model — It's the Loop Around It
"The model isn't the moat" is now widely said and stops one step short. What compounds shares a property — it accumulates from watching real usage, which is why it's invisible from outside.
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Will Open-Source Harnesses Eat Commercial Coding Tools?
The premise is right — the loop is a few hundred lines. The conclusion is too fast, because the loop isn't the product, and one of the real advantages is invisible from outside.
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What a Harness Actually Is, and Why It's the Real Product
A model takes messages and returns tool calls. Everything else is the harness — and it explains almost all the variance between agent systems that share the same model.
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If Intelligence Gets Cheap, What Becomes Scarce?
More useful than asking what gets cheap. Everything on the scarce list has one of two properties — and neither can be produced on demand, which is exactly why they stay scarce.
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What Falling Inference Costs Change About Agent Design
Relaxed cost pressure mainly buys back the verification steps you declined. It doesn't rehabilitate filling the context or adding turns — those were quality problems wearing a cost disguise.
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Will On-Device Intelligence Be Free? What the Economics Say
"Free" means three different things here. Two are plausible and already partly true; the third doesn't follow, because the frontier is defined by requiring the most compute.
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Three Things That Would Genuinely Surprise Me in Two Years
More useful than predictions: naming what would count as a genuine surprise. Three of them, each identifying a load-bearing belief — and what evidence would overturn it.
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The Compounding Loop: Agents Building Agent Infrastructure
Agents are good at building the harness that makes agents useful — well-specified, verifiable plumbing. The loop is real, and it has a hard boundary at everything requiring judgment about what to build.
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What Happens When Verification Gets Automated Too
"Agents generate, humans verify" is stable partly because verification is hard to automate. Parts of it aren't — and the part that survives isn't reviewing, it's knowing what was wanted.
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Who Adopts First, and Why It Isn't the Biggest Companies
The organizations with the most resources are frequently not the ones deploying furthest. Four things gate adoption, and large companies are structurally worse at three of them — none of which are about technology.